Applying the model

Aligning the model with reality is a comprehensive process that involves both a detailed analysis of available data and the cross-referencing of the results with recorded history.

Every primary cycle consists of an economic shock, followed by three secondary, or sub-, cycles. The cycles are not regular sine waves; each cycle has its own distinctive pattern which includes an intra-cycle contraction. The first (base) cycle is centred; the second (change) cycle is rightward biased; and the third (terminal) cycle is leftward biased. The fact that sub-cycles cluster in groups of three also allows phase-specific comparisons to be made across cycles. Each sub-cycle is infused with a tonal quality that is appropriate to its location within the higher-order cycle.

A triad of cycles transits the three stages of dynamic change: the separation from an old structure; the shift to a new structure; and the adaptation to that new structure. This process applies to all stages of the time hierarchy.

The technique is to correlate the archetypal pattern with oscillations that have occurred in an economic indicator or a market. The process is confirmed if the average expected cycle corresponds to the average actual cycle.

It is then possible to compare the currently evolving cycle with the expected patterns. The result is usually a very clear sense both of where a system stands in the context of its own history and of where it is likely to be going.

The pattern of evolution